Forecasting
AMA with Nini Diana, Director of Consumer Marketing, Harvard Business Review
NINI DIANA, HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW
“We are really trying to understand how we fulfill our promise through digital content, knowing that’s what subscribers are looking for, while still trying to not lose the value of our print magazine. We can’t grow in the same way with the same offers year after year.”
Full Transcript
*Questions submitted by community members
Transcript and highlights from our Ask Me Anything.
Nini Diana is the Director of Consumer Marketing at Harvard Business Review and she is joining us today to answer your questions about forecasting - especially during these interesting times. Welcome, Nini!
Question: Let’s get started with a more personal question. What is your favorite subscription you could not live without, besides HBR?
I use my Peloton subscription a lot. I certainly feel more accountable to it than, say, Disney+ and I feel like it adds something to my life. Whereas using HBO to watch Succession may shorten my life.
We may need to create a #SubscrionWorks group in Peloton!
Question: It’s all about balance! What aspects of forecasting HBR’s growth did you get right and why do you think you were able to predict it with such accuracy?
Thankfully, there is a bit of seasonality to our business, which doesn’t necessarily make a lot of sense, but it has helped us predict when to push more funding to certain media channels or explain certain dips that are based on paywall timing. And let me be clear: we were not very accurate at the beginning of our fiscal.
I totally agree with you on this Nini!
Question: Throughout the pandemic it seems that strategies and forecasts have been more dynamic than ever before, do you feel like it’s settling out or that it remains turbulent?
I will always err on the side of turbulence. Our fiscal year is July-Jun so you can imagine how hopeful we were feeling in 2021 when people were getting vaccinated, and summer was approaching. And then subscriptions tanked in July and August. We totally overshot the mark on our forecast because we just didn’t know. We learned quickly.
Question: and as a follow-up: How have you adapted your team to make things function through turbulence?
We’re picking apart every abnormality, but we’re also trying to work more closely with teams that manage the site analytics and not just campaign analytics. We’re also trying to stand up tests more quickly than we’ve been able to in the past.
You and everyone else…hard to predict what is going on these days
And we're considering options we may have never considered before, but of course, with the Harvard-level circumspection
Question: How often are you revisiting your forecasting throughout the year?
Not far. Our finance team doesn’t like any assumption that isn’t based on something we can’t prove out
Question: I’d love to hear how you balance complexity and accuracy. With so many unknowns in forecasting, how far down the “assumption” rabbit hole do you go?
We officially look at it quarterly, but I am always on it and recalibrating
Question: On average, how long does it take a test to go from concept to live?
Way longer than I'd like, but we're working on getting things done in a 30-day window
Question: How often do you rework your approach to forecasting, if at all?
We set a budget every year and it’s what we’re measured against, but we have to provide a quarterly outlook on pacing, so we’re looking at it a lot. I, personally, look at pacing several times a week
Definitely review pacing against the forecast weekly
We seriously seem to change tactics every week
Question: Do you think the traditional seasonality will survive the pandemic effects or will it need a re-write post-pandemic?
I actually think it will. It was a pattern pre-pandemic. Somehow it's similar to New Year's resolution booms.
Question: How do you tackle projections uniquely from forecasts?
Initial projections are usually based on history, with some growth built-in and assumptions about our retention within each subscription type. And that’s really what led us astray at first. Once we reach the end of a quarter we take what we’ve learned and assess whether or not we’ll be able to maintain our pace or if it will move up for down. We also take a look at our campaigns and adjust those based on performance.
Question: What do you see as a trend for HBR’s growth that might be applicable to other publications in the next 6-12 months?
We are really trying to understand how we fulfill our promise through digital content, knowing that’s what subscribers are looking for, while still trying to not lose the value of our print magazine. We can’t grow in the same way with the same offers year after year. The media is going to be mixed, the articles can’t appear in just a single format. And, for a long time, we’ve been asking to grow circ numbers and revenue at the same pace, but that won’t be possible if the expectation to have delivered magazines a major part of the equation.
So deflating... the best laid plans...\n\nIt seems businesses are at a decision point of putting the pedal to the metal and really pushing through this turbulence or easing off so as not to over-commit. That's a difficult call"
The crux of having a legacy business :) I still read some print pubs fyi
That’s definitely good to note! And yeah, I still appreciate good quality print publications!
Right? People forget how old magazines really are. They're not even a thing to some readers
The printed pages are “always there” for you to pick up and read
We all need a good break from screens…print allows for that along with a tactile feel that I find relaxing. Just trying to balance that with being green so I limit my print pubs.
To that end, we're thinking of allowing people to donate their print copies to organizations that are building blocks for young professionals
Question: This question is not quite about forecasting: What is 1 top win you’ve had as a professional?
Landing my job at HBR was kind of a coup for me. It was exactly the kind of growth and expanded responsibilities I wanted. It got me out of a single-channel focus
I love when you have insight into all channels and can make them all work together rather than focusing on one siloed channel!
Question: Any big mistakes that you’ve made in your work as a marketing professional which you’ve learned a lot from?
We only have until 1:30 right? Barely scratches the surface on mistakes. But I do have one…over the past 2 years, in an effort to limit workloads for some people during a big transition, I brought some people into a project too late and that made some aspects of the project harder than they needed to be
Oo ouch. What were some of your takeaways from that?
Good question. I think it's don't assume that an old-school "circulation" person won't have input or be interested in platforms that are digital first.
Good insight… we always need to make room for all relevant players to share their full candid opinion to have a cohesive team and to build a great product.
Question: How have you been analyzing, and comparing, YoY data during the pandemic with so many external factors contributing to the huge swings in subscription membership -- assuming HBR has seen some of this as many other subscription companies have?
I try to mention the previous fiscal year as much as possible. When I share data, I make sure to include our FY20 alongside FY21 and 22 because it’s so clear that our FY21 was an anomaly. When I do the math and ignore last year, I can see we’re on track over 3 years to grow into the goal we set when we did our 3-year plan.
This is a great approach :clap::bulb: more context around the pandemic period really helps to ground expectations. And with this all going on longer than expected, the context needs to be longer than typical as well!
That's a great reminder for sure to keep things in perspective. How far out are you typically looking? 3, 5 years? More?!
3 years is our regular cycle
Part of me wonders, though, how much of 2021 will shift from an anomaly to becoming more of the norm. 2022 is starting to feel a lot like 2021…
Part of me hopes you're right. But honestly, I can't keep growing 39% every year. That's prob an exaggeration, but you get what I mean!
I can imagine - it's a tough position, balancing aggressive growth tactics with trepidatious finances
Question: Assumptions around retention are quite difficult. Any learnings from that process?
We spend SOOOOO much time thinking about retention. Let me get back to you on that. Or reach out via DM if you can. I have a lot to say!
Maybe a follow-up AMA on retention?
Question: What have been some effective retention tactics used on the cohort of pandemic sign-ups?
We’ve tested some on-site messaging on the 2nd visit page has helped a little, we’ve also tried some upgrade offers prior to renewal. Most of it has been small stuff and very un-flashy, but practical, easy to manage things. consistent messaging on value and benefits, really good content that is relevant and evergreen
Good content has always been one of HBR’s strengths.
Thank you. They've done an amazing job over the past 18 months.
Question: Anything that has been specifically valuable to that audience of adopters during the pandemic?
I’d say hats off to our edit/content teams for knowing when to pivot away from hardcore covid coverage, to WFH, to hybrid to mental health, and on and on. We’re not a newsroom, so it’s nice to be able to spend time focusing and digging deep into a topic and then have it there to refer to because it always seems to come back as a topic.
Would be very cool to playback some of the subscriber’s most valued content as a year-end review… maybe favorites or shared content… could be effective retention tactic (similar to the Spotify Wrap-Up if you’re familiar with their subscription).
I am. We just sent out our Year in Review yesterday.
I have found the HBR content to be better in the last year+ than ever before - and by that I mean more relevant to my needs/interests at the time. Perhaps just a focus group of one, but your editorial team has my appreciation for sure!
I love this - sounds like you are definitely filling customer needs with these topics!
Great content to me means being a great contributor to a crucial, ongoing conversation on important topics! definitely appreciate this perspective.
I will pass on to our edit team these notes. They are an incredible bunch and make my job pretty easy!
Question: This has been great! I'd love to know what you view as your biggest challenge for 2022, I'm curious also to understand the contributors to your projections -is there a single person or team who owns them? Would you say it's more an art or science? And one more -sorry! - do you think you spend too little, too much, or just the right amount of time on development and “maintenance” of projections?
It's mostly me, but I take input from my circ manager. It's a lot of science, but I push pretty hard on the art part of it because, duh, humans. I think I spend the right amount of time. And I'm forced to do it regularly. Anything in between is my own anxiety!
The perfect way to end our AMA! Thank you so much for all of your awesome insights
My pleasure! Please DM me if you have more Qs!
Thank you Nini for taking the time today to answer these questions! We appreciate your knowledge and willingness to share with our community.
Thank you, Nini - so much great info to digest over a few days
thank you so much this was great!
Thank you so much for all your answers and for being so quick to respond!
Thank you, Nini, great insights!
I :heart: House of Kaizen and Subscriptionworks!
Thank you, Nini, this was so informative.